Waypoint

Occupational demand pressure.

Adverts relative to employment stock, with pay growth context. Filter by shortage, churn, rising-pay, or quiet signals.

How these figures are produced

The model compares hiring activity with the existing employment stock. It does not treat qualifications as labour supply.

Formulas

Jobs: ASHE jobs (000s) × 1,000
Annualised adverts: observed adverts × expected months ÷ months present · 30 of 127 displayed occupations used fewer than 12 months
Intensity: annualised adverts ÷ jobs (000s), giving adverts per 1,000 jobs
Signal: High intensity starts at the median (310) and high pay growth means above 5.7%.

Data sources

ONS online job advert estimatesMonthly advert counts by SOC 2020 occupation for Total UK, 2024-08 to 2025-07.
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings2025 employee-job stock, median annual pay, and one-year median pay change.
ONS SOC 2020Four-digit occupation codes and labels used to join the sources.

Assumptions and limits

Adverts are postings and may be duplicated; intensity is a ranking index, not a vacancy rate or hiring probability.
Only reliable ASHE estimates and occupations with at least 50,000 jobs are included.
Job stock is rounded by ASHE to whole thousands. Pay change is a single annual step, not a trend.
Missing advert months are annualised; regions are never summed because the Total UK series overlaps regional series.

Coverage: 316 occupations with matched reliable inputs; 127 pass the size floor; 33 shortage, 31 churn, 21 rising pay, and 42 quiet signals are displayed across a 12-month window.

Signal

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Demand pressure

Showing 10 of 127 matching rows. API

SOC code	Occupation	Annualised adverts	Months	Jobs	Intensity	Median pay	Median pay change	Signal
5231	Vehicle technicians, mechanics and electricians	95,051	10/12	98,000	970	£36,560	+5.6%	churn
5434	Chefs	137,321	12/12	152,000	903	£26,531	+3.7%	churn
8214	Delivery drivers and couriers	103,198	12/12	126,000	819	£24,627	+6.3%	shortage
1232	Residential, day and domiciliary care managers and proprietors	45,231	12/12	58,000	780	£40,661	+5.0%	churn
3132	IT user support technicians	114,238	12/12	152,000	752	£34,314	+6.8%	shortage
5315	Plumbers & heating and ventilating installers and repairers	41,556	10/12	58,000	716	£36,563	-2.3%	churn
3552	Business sales executives	117,510	10/12	165,000	712	£36,498	+4.5%	churn
3541	Estimators, valuers and assessors	34,932	10/12	53,000	659	£37,809	+13.6%	shortage
6111	Early education and childcare assistants	52,488	12/12	83,000	632	£19,165	+3.6%	churn
4142	Office supervisors	35,629	12/12	57,000	625	£32,265	-1.0%	churn